“The market for U.S. government debt (Treasuries) forms the bedrock of the global financial system. The ability of investors to sell Treasuries quickly, cheaply, and
Politicized memory plays strange tricks. To listen to influential Western voices in 2023 you might imagine that China emerged in December 2022 from long confinement
Is Russia’s war economy on the brink of crisis, or settling into a new “long-war” mode? Subscribed With the ruble having fallen to new lows
Europe’s centrist political class is looking anxiously towards elections for the European Parliament in 2024. What they fear is a “lurch” to the far-right. In
China’s economy is in trouble because its authoritarian demons are catching up with it and paralyzing the private sector. China’s economy is in trouble because
In interpreting China’s current economic difficulties fundamental issues of analytical approach are at stake, which I have started a Chartbook mini-series to address the issue.
Whither China? With the inflation (or should we say price shock) drama in the West largely played out, there is no story more important in
The news about Israel has three faces – the escalating violence of the occupation, the constitutional crisis unleashed by Netanyahu’s far-right government and an economic
Amidst all of the debate around Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, I was shaken this week by a typically salutary thread by Alan Allport on the anniversary of another
America is about to pass the biggest peacetime military budget of any nation in history. And yet, as the excellent Van Jackson (@WonkVJ) notes, American
Speak to anyone with close connections to China and one of the main topics of conversation, if not the main topic, is the double challenge of finding
In the US inflation debate that has been on-going since 2021, there were three broad positions: hard landing, soft landing and team transitory. In light
How do you manage the costs of security? Hard enough at any time to put a figure on it. The implications are even more daunting
As Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s plane touched down in Beijing, it was greeted by a rainbow. Yellen’s visit is the latest round of diplomacy through
What happened this time last week in Russia? As Robert Armstrong observed it went by so fast that markets hardly had time to react. One could infer
We are entering the second serious phase of inflation politics. The first was the decision in 2022 to raise rates sharply to counter a mounting
I had the pleasure this week of talking inflation with a bunch of folks on Maybrit Ilner’s high-profile talk show on German public TV (ZDF). Germany’s big
What is the IRA? Is it a game-changing new industrial policy? Or is it the old wine of neoliberal de-risking in new bottles, in which
Now you see it. Now you don’t. Thinking about the Biden administration’s new industrial policy I am trying to square two realities in my head.
The climate crisis is often discussed as a global problem which requires a collective mobilization of humanity. This can be inspiring. Against the backdrop of
As tension over Taiwan mounts and military alliances form around South China Sea we face the remarkable situation that the world’s principal artery of trade
In the US the obsession with the inflation, the Fed, interest rates and financial stability has been displaced from the headlines by an overriding preoccupation
When was the era of Bretton Woods? This might seem like a trivial question with a simple and familiar answer. But on closer inspection it
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is no friend of Sweden. But a Swedish economist may hold the key to understanding the inflation that Erdogan has unleashed.
How does the current rash of banking crises compare to 2008? The GFC was a slow-burning affair. Does what we have seen so far in
(The) Ouroboros, (is) a mythical animal which swallows itself, starting with the tail. It epitomises paradox and is a pretty good emblem for US banking
One of the striking features of the speculative talk about the future of the “dollar system” is the degree to which it hinges on highly
We are talking about the dollar again. Debate is stimulated by the fact that the dominance of the dollar is out of of kilter with
April 25th is the commemorative day for the final liberation of Italy from fascist rule. It is the occasion for memorials of various stripes. On
Sudan is a pivotal link in the increasingly fragile and violent geopolitics of both the Sahel and the Red Sea/Horn of Africa regions. The bloody
Envisioning the global energy transition there is a credibility gap. Expert modeling says that trillions of dollars in investment are needed every year. $ 4
“What is history for?” … “It makes us brave!” I’ll never forget this response by my distinguished colleague Professor Jonathan Riley-Smith to one of the
If you ask the question – what would it take to put the world on a track of sustainable development? – the best guesses of
Did Putin’s war on Ukraine and the ensuing energy crisis lead to a retreat from the energy transition in Europe? Did Russian aggression expose the
The macrofinancial switchback of COVID-inflation-interest rate hikes has put the global market for fixed-income securities, valued at c $130 trillion, on the rack. The spring
Whats new and whats old in the current conjuncture? I devoted my column this month in the FT to dissecting the forces at work in
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